Tyler Hansbrough - 22.6 ppg
Kevin Durant - 25.8 ppg
JJ Redick - 26.8 ppg
Andrew Bogut - 20.4 ppg
Jameer Nelson - 20.6 ppg
T.J. Ford - 15.0 ppg
Jason Williams - 21.6 ppg
Shane Battier - 19.9 ppg
Kenyon Martin - 18.9 ppg
Elton Brand - 17.7 ppg
Further, Ford's 15.0 ppg is the lowest total for an award winner in the past 20 years.
Is it possible to take the Naismith without scoring at least 18-20 ppg in a season? Sure - as evidenced by Ford and Brand. But there would probably have to be exceptional circumstances where there would be a very limited number of quality candidates. That isn't the case this year. I think the chances are slim that he could win the award. Other than the big three of Hansbrough, Griffin, and Curry falling off the face of the earth, three things probably would need to happen:
1. His scoring average would have to get up to 16-18 per game
2. Sam Young's numbers would really have to drop to establish that Blair is the clear statistical leader
3. Pitt would have to have such an outstanding year to get more notice for Blair
The toughest barrier might be that he may not even be the best player on his team.