Pitt vs. SMU: Keys to Victory
by oaklandzoo12 on Jan 3, 2012 1:00 PM EST
in Pitt Football
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PrintWhile basketball seems to be in freefall at this point, we get the chance to be distracted for a short while as the football team takes the field for the final time this season in the BBVA Compass Bowl on Saturday against the SMU Mustangs of Conference USA (and soon the Big East).
Even though we're nearing the Paul Chryst era, we're still technically in the Fraud Graham nightmare season. Despite that, this is the final time several seniors will put on their Pitt uniforms when they take the field. So let's continue to show our support for these guys that have been through so much in the past year.
Here are a few keys to the game:
When Pitt has the ball
1) Move past the distractions
This actually applies for both sides of the ball, but we're starting with the offense so I'll mention it here. While they weren't as loyal to Todd Graham as they were to Dave Wannstedt, it still is troubling for the players to go through this situation again. Unlike last year, though, Pitt has a head coach hired and waiting to take over the team. The players were able to get through the bowl game last season in a similar situation, so hopefully they can do the same this season.
2) Do what Pitt does best - run the ball
SMU ended the season losing four of their last six games and in each loss, SMU gave up nearly 150 rushing yards. Assuming Zach Brown is back for the game, he along with Isaac Bennett should give Pitt a solid rushing option.
3) Protect Tino Sunseri
The biggest question Pitt has faced each game this season is whether the offensive line can provide enough protection for Sunseri. While the Mustangs are 62nd in pass defense, they're also 27th in sacks this season averaging about two per game. Pitt can coast to victory if Sunseri has enough time to throw and, you know, actually gets rid of the ball.
When SMU has the ball:
1) Get to J.J. McDermott
Ever since the Mustangs lost leading rusher Zach Line after their loss to Navy, SMU has become one-dimensional on offense. They only rushed for 24 yards against a questionable Houston defense and then struggled in the passing game against a bad Rice team. SMU will probably look to strike through the air since Pitt's pass defense has been susceptible to breakdowns this season. If they can get to QB J.J. McDermott quickly, though, they can get sacks or force bad passes. McDermott is only completing 59% of his passes and has thrown 16 picks, so he's a candidate to make some mistakes in the game.
2) Force turnovers
SMU has had nine turnovers in their past three games, including a whopping five in the season finale against Rice. Pitt, meanwhile, has done a good job forcing turnovers towards the end of the season. The Panthers have racked up 11 in their final three games, including six against Syracuse in the finale. Both teams are trending in the opposite direction when it comes to turnovers and I think we'll be seeing more of the same in the bowl game.
3) Win the red zone battle
The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. In 49 trips, they have just 29 touchdowns. Pitt has done a good job defending the red zone, allowing just 19 touchdowns in 33 trips. The Panthers need to make sure SMU doesn't score touchdowns instead of converting field goals.
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Some good points, but I'll add a few to it
When Pitt is on offense
I think another key here is establishing a short, intermediate passing game right from the beginning. You’re absolutely right about SMU having a porous run defense and the ground game being our strength, but that’s just all the more reason for them to expect it and know it’s coming. They won’t expect Sunseri to come out throwing at all – and all if somehow we could get him into a rhythm with 5-6 yard completions to Graham, Shanahan, Street, it would set up the run beautifully. SMU is not a very deep team defensively either, there’s a handful of decent players but if Pitt can put together some long drives mixing in a short passing game, they’ll get worn down and the depth starts to show.
When Pitt is on defense
It’s definitely going to be about the turnover battle. But more importantly, when Pitt can force them. McDermott will throw picks like you said, especially if he gets into a situation with his team down by multiple scores.
Disrupting the pass game will be huge, starting with Donald – and to cap off his breakout year, I think he has a multi-sack game here on national TV. He’s going to be key, he might have had the advantage of flying under some radars earlier in the season with more teams concerned with Lindsey or others but certainly not now.
I’m also interested to see who they decide to put against their big receiving tandem.
To dare is to do
The battle between the receivers and the secondary is going to be key
The pass rush has done a good job at stopping the QB, but if the QB gets his pass off, the secondary has let big plays occur, whether it’s poor tackling or bad coverage. Can Antwuan Reed and K’Waun Williams play tight enough on the receivers to prevent the big plays?
As for the passing game, I was reading something from Paul Zeise and he spoke with QB coach Todd Dodge, now the OC for the game, and Pitt is going to try some big plays of their own in the passing game. He says that it has been working in practice, but after watching Sunseri at QB for two seasons, I’m slightly worried. I agree that starting the game by establishing the short passing game will go a long way for Pitt, if anything just to get Sunseri’s confidence up. I was worried about Pitt’s chances initially in this game solely because of the Graham situation, but as time has gone by I’ve become more confident that Pitt wins by at least 2 possessions.
Cardiac Hill contributor
I think if they use Reed and Williams in tight coverage, where they’re not giving SMU’s two big receivers a chance to get free right at the line of scrimmage, they’ll have success. Neither Darius Johnson or Cole Beasley are big guys. But you’re right, it depends on if they can play tight enough.
I’m not sure if I’m a big fan of big passing plays out of Sunseri. It’s not that I don’t think he has the ability to execute them – they’re just low percentage plays in his arsenal and I’d prefer not seeing him try to fire footballs 30-40 yards in the air. Low percentage plays with him normally turn into turnovers, and that’s the last thing we need against an offense than can score fairly quickly if given opportunities. If he gets into a rhythm early with the short passing game then MAYBE they can attempt a few bigger ones just to mix it up and keep their safeties from becoming too overzealous in run defense.
I honestly don’t think the Fraud fiasco is going to be much of a distraction. If anything, wanting to play well to spite him would be about it.
To dare is to do
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