Calculating expected wins for each coach in the 2014 NCAA Tournament

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Is your team underachieving, or is it your coach? Let's take a look at how we can apply Tournament Win Expectancy (TWE) to coaches.

Yesterday, we discussed what Tournament Win Expectancy (TWE) was and how to apply it to each team's appearances in the NCAA Tournament.  If you haven't read it, please do so now as the basics will not be covered again today.

Just for an easy reference, here are the current TWE values based on the results of the 1985-2013 NCAA Tournaments:

Twe2014_medium

With the WAFS being calculated for every appearance, the data was then rolled up for each coach. Below is a list of all 68 coaches in the 2014 NCAA Tournament and their WAFS over the last five tournaments and in the 64 team era.  A value of "N/A" means that the coach has no appearances in the given timeframe.

Team 64 Team Era
WAFS
(Appearances)
64 Team Era
Average
WAFS
Last 5 Years
WAFS
(Appearances)
Last 5 Years
Average
WAFS
Alford, Steve (UCLA) -3.7156 (7) -0.5308 -2.8535 (3) -0.9512
Altman, Dana (Oregon) -2.5861 (9) -0.2873 1.4655 (1) 1.4655
Amaker, Tommy (Harvard) 1.6638 (3) 0.5546 0.3017 (2) 0.1509
Barnes, Rick (Texas) -5.1900 (20) -0.2595 -1.5777 (4) -0.3944
Beilein, John (Michigan) 6.1982 (8) 0.7748 2.6206 (4) 0.6552
Bennett, Tony (Virginia) -1.0259 (3) -0.3420 -0.6379 (1) -0.6379
Boeheim, Jim (Syracuse) 5.1634 (24) 0.2151 0.0431 (5) 0.0086
Boyle, Tad (Colorado) -0.1724 (2) -0.0862 -0.1724 (2) -0.0862
Brennan, Mike (American) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Brown, Will (Albany) -0.3362 (3) -0.1121 -0.0690 (1) -0.0690
Calipari, John (Kentucky) 4.7069 (14) 0.3362 4.3621 (4) 1.0905
Callero, Joe (Cal Poly) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Christian, Jamion (Mount St. Mary's) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cooley, Ed (Providence) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Crews, Jim (St. Louis) -1.4484 (5) -0.2897 -0.5259 (1) -0.5259
Cronin, Mick (Cincinnati) -0.6638 (5) -0.1328 0.0345 (3) 0.0115
Davis, Mike (Texas Southern) 1.8189 (5) 0.3638 -0.5345 (1) -0.5345
Dawkins, Johnny (Stanford) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dixon, Jamie (Pittsburgh) -5.2242 (9) -0.5805 -4.2586 (4) -1.0647
Donovan, Billy (Florida) 9.7068 (13) 0.7467 3.2672 (4) 0.8168
Drew, Scott (Baylor) 1.5775 (4) 0.3944 2.1120 (3) 0.7040
Ellis, Cliff (Coastal Carolina) -0.0603 (6) -0.0101 N/A N/A
Few, Mark (Gonzaga) -2.4484 (14) -0.1749 -0.9311 (5) -0.1862
Fisher, Steve (San Diego St.) 5.7499 (13) 0.4423 -1.9311 (4) -0.4828
Ford, Travis (Oklahoma St.) -1.7156 (4) -0.4289 -1.6466 (3) -0.5489
Gottfried, Mark (North Carolina St.) -0.3794 (9) -0.0422 0.7758 (2) 0.3879
Hawkins, Steve (Western Michigan) -0.5345 (1) -0.5345 N/A N/A
Hoffman, Bob (Mercer) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hoiberg, Fred (Iowa St.) 0.6724 (2) 0.3362 0.6724 (2) 0.3362
Izzo, Tom (Michigan St.) 11.7243 (16) 0.7328 3.6121 (5) 0.7224
Jeter, Rob (UW-Milwaukee) 0.4655 (1) 0.4655 N/A N/A
Kaspar, Danny (Stephen F. Austin) -0.1638 (1) -0.1638 -0.1638 (1) -0.1638
Kellogg, Derek (Massachusetts) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kruger, Lon (Oklahoma) 0.3360 (14) 0.0240 -2.0173 (3) -0.6724
Krzyzewski, Mike (Duke) 9.6812 (28) 0.3458 -0.9224 (5) -0.1845
Lonergan, Mike (George Washington) 0.0000 (1) 0.0000 0.0000 (1) 0.0000
Mack, Chris (Xavier) 1.0345 (3) 0.3448 1.0345 (3) 0.3448
Manning, Danny (Tulsa) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Marlin, Bob (LA-Lafayette) -0.2328 (2) -0.1164 -0.1638 (1) -0.1638
Marshall, Gregg (Wichita St.) 2.3534 (9) 0.2615 2.2845 (2) 1.1423
Martelli, Phil (St. Joseph's) -0.8276 (5) -0.1655 N/A N/A
Martin, Cuonzo (Tennessee) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Masiello, Steve (Manhattan) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matta, Thad (Ohio St.) 1.8275 (11) 0.1661 -0.2587 (5) -0.0517
McCaffery, Fran (Iowa) 0.8794 (5) 0.1759 0.1466 (2) 0.0733
McDermott, Greg (Creighton) -0.8535 (5) -0.1707 0.4827 (2) 0.2414
Menzies, Marvin (New Mexico St.) -1.0689 (3) -0.3563 -1.0689 (3) -0.3563
Miles, Tim (Nebraska) -0.5345 (1) -0.5345 -0.5345 (1) -0.5345
Miller, Archie (Dayton) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Miller, Sean (Arizona) 4.5689 (6) 0.7615 3.1810 (3) 1.0603
Moton, LeVelle (NCCU) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Neal, Craig (New Mexico) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Neubauer, Jeff (Eastern Kentucky) 0.0000 (1) 0.0000 N/A N/A
Ollie, Kevin (Connecticut) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pastner, Josh (Memphis) -1.3880 (3) -0.4627 -1.3880 (3) -0.4627
Phillips, Saul (North Dakota St.) -0.1638 (1) -0.1638 -0.1638 (1) -0.1638
Pitino, Rick (Louisville) 12.0949 (17) 0.7115 2.6552 (5) 0.5310
Rahe, Randy (Weber St.) -0.0690 (1) -0.0690 N/A N/A
Rose, Dave (BYU) -1.9226 (6) -0.3204 -0.5432 (4) -0.1358
Ross, Monte (Delaware) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ryan, Bo (Wisconsin) 0.7584 (12) 0.0632 -0.2415 (5) -0.0483
Self, Bill (Kansas) 1.2328 (15) 0.0822 -1.3275 (5) -0.2655
Sendek, Herb (Arizona St.) 0.7500 (7) 0.1071 -0.1638 (1) -0.1638
Smart, Shaka (VCU) 3.8017 (3) 1.2672 3.8017 (3) 1.2672
Weber, Bruce (Kansas St.) 0.1465 (9) 0.0163 -2.2414 (3) -0.7471
Williams, Roy (UNC) 5.9570 (23) 0.2590 3.1983 (4) 0.7996
Wright, Jay (Villanova) 0.5259 (10) 0.0526 -0.4397 (4) -0.1099
Young, Mike (Wofford) -0.4310 (2) -0.2155 -0.4310 (2) -0.2155

Just like yesterday, this list is not sortable.  But if you look at this data in Excel, you will see many things that you would expect to see.  At the top of the 64 team era lists, you will see familiar names like Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, Mike Kryzewski, and Roy Williams.  In the recent era you will see many of the same, plus John Calipari, Shaka Smart, and Sean Miller.  At the bottom of all of these lists?  Yup, you guessed it, Jamie Dixon.

Later this week, we will take a look at how we can attempt to fill out a bracket using TWE and WAFS and track its accuracy throughout the next 3 weekends.  Stay tuned.

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