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Yesterday, we discussed what Tournament Win Expectancy (TWE) was and how to apply it to each team's appearances in the NCAA Tournament. If you haven't read it, please do so now as the basics will not be covered again today.
Just for an easy reference, here are the current TWE values based on the results of the 1985-2013 NCAA Tournaments:
With the WAFS being calculated for every appearance, the data was then rolled up for each coach. Below is a list of all 68 coaches in the 2014 NCAA Tournament and their WAFS over the last five tournaments and in the 64 team era. A value of "N/A" means that the coach has no appearances in the given timeframe.
| Team | 64 Team Era WAFS (Appearances) |
64 Team Era Average WAFS |
Last 5 Years WAFS (Appearances) |
Last 5 Years Average WAFS |
| Alford, Steve (UCLA) | -3.7156 (7) | -0.5308 | -2.8535 (3) | -0.9512 |
| Altman, Dana (Oregon) | -2.5861 (9) | -0.2873 | 1.4655 (1) | 1.4655 |
| Amaker, Tommy (Harvard) | 1.6638 (3) | 0.5546 | 0.3017 (2) | 0.1509 |
| Barnes, Rick (Texas) | -5.1900 (20) | -0.2595 | -1.5777 (4) | -0.3944 |
| Beilein, John (Michigan) | 6.1982 (8) | 0.7748 | 2.6206 (4) | 0.6552 |
| Bennett, Tony (Virginia) | -1.0259 (3) | -0.3420 | -0.6379 (1) | -0.6379 |
| Boeheim, Jim (Syracuse) | 5.1634 (24) | 0.2151 | 0.0431 (5) | 0.0086 |
| Boyle, Tad (Colorado) | -0.1724 (2) | -0.0862 | -0.1724 (2) | -0.0862 |
| Brennan, Mike (American) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Brown, Will (Albany) | -0.3362 (3) | -0.1121 | -0.0690 (1) | -0.0690 |
| Calipari, John (Kentucky) | 4.7069 (14) | 0.3362 | 4.3621 (4) | 1.0905 |
| Callero, Joe (Cal Poly) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Christian, Jamion (Mount St. Mary's) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cooley, Ed (Providence) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Crews, Jim (St. Louis) | -1.4484 (5) | -0.2897 | -0.5259 (1) | -0.5259 |
| Cronin, Mick (Cincinnati) | -0.6638 (5) | -0.1328 | 0.0345 (3) | 0.0115 |
| Davis, Mike (Texas Southern) | 1.8189 (5) | 0.3638 | -0.5345 (1) | -0.5345 |
| Dawkins, Johnny (Stanford) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dixon, Jamie (Pittsburgh) | -5.2242 (9) | -0.5805 | -4.2586 (4) | -1.0647 |
| Donovan, Billy (Florida) | 9.7068 (13) | 0.7467 | 3.2672 (4) | 0.8168 |
| Drew, Scott (Baylor) | 1.5775 (4) | 0.3944 | 2.1120 (3) | 0.7040 |
| Ellis, Cliff (Coastal Carolina) | -0.0603 (6) | -0.0101 | N/A | N/A |
| Few, Mark (Gonzaga) | -2.4484 (14) | -0.1749 | -0.9311 (5) | -0.1862 |
| Fisher, Steve (San Diego St.) | 5.7499 (13) | 0.4423 | -1.9311 (4) | -0.4828 |
| Ford, Travis (Oklahoma St.) | -1.7156 (4) | -0.4289 | -1.6466 (3) | -0.5489 |
| Gottfried, Mark (North Carolina St.) | -0.3794 (9) | -0.0422 | 0.7758 (2) | 0.3879 |
| Hawkins, Steve (Western Michigan) | -0.5345 (1) | -0.5345 | N/A | N/A |
| Hoffman, Bob (Mercer) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Hoiberg, Fred (Iowa St.) | 0.6724 (2) | 0.3362 | 0.6724 (2) | 0.3362 |
| Izzo, Tom (Michigan St.) | 11.7243 (16) | 0.7328 | 3.6121 (5) | 0.7224 |
| Jeter, Rob (UW-Milwaukee) | 0.4655 (1) | 0.4655 | N/A | N/A |
| Kaspar, Danny (Stephen F. Austin) | -0.1638 (1) | -0.1638 | -0.1638 (1) | -0.1638 |
| Kellogg, Derek (Massachusetts) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kruger, Lon (Oklahoma) | 0.3360 (14) | 0.0240 | -2.0173 (3) | -0.6724 |
| Krzyzewski, Mike (Duke) | 9.6812 (28) | 0.3458 | -0.9224 (5) | -0.1845 |
| Lonergan, Mike (George Washington) | 0.0000 (1) | 0.0000 | 0.0000 (1) | 0.0000 |
| Mack, Chris (Xavier) | 1.0345 (3) | 0.3448 | 1.0345 (3) | 0.3448 |
| Manning, Danny (Tulsa) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marlin, Bob (LA-Lafayette) | -0.2328 (2) | -0.1164 | -0.1638 (1) | -0.1638 |
| Marshall, Gregg (Wichita St.) | 2.3534 (9) | 0.2615 | 2.2845 (2) | 1.1423 |
| Martelli, Phil (St. Joseph's) | -0.8276 (5) | -0.1655 | N/A | N/A |
| Martin, Cuonzo (Tennessee) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Masiello, Steve (Manhattan) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Matta, Thad (Ohio St.) | 1.8275 (11) | 0.1661 | -0.2587 (5) | -0.0517 |
| McCaffery, Fran (Iowa) | 0.8794 (5) | 0.1759 | 0.1466 (2) | 0.0733 |
| McDermott, Greg (Creighton) | -0.8535 (5) | -0.1707 | 0.4827 (2) | 0.2414 |
| Menzies, Marvin (New Mexico St.) | -1.0689 (3) | -0.3563 | -1.0689 (3) | -0.3563 |
| Miles, Tim (Nebraska) | -0.5345 (1) | -0.5345 | -0.5345 (1) | -0.5345 |
| Miller, Archie (Dayton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Miller, Sean (Arizona) | 4.5689 (6) | 0.7615 | 3.1810 (3) | 1.0603 |
| Moton, LeVelle (NCCU) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Neal, Craig (New Mexico) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Neubauer, Jeff (Eastern Kentucky) | 0.0000 (1) | 0.0000 | N/A | N/A |
| Ollie, Kevin (Connecticut) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pastner, Josh (Memphis) | -1.3880 (3) | -0.4627 | -1.3880 (3) | -0.4627 |
| Phillips, Saul (North Dakota St.) | -0.1638 (1) | -0.1638 | -0.1638 (1) | -0.1638 |
| Pitino, Rick (Louisville) | 12.0949 (17) | 0.7115 | 2.6552 (5) | 0.5310 |
| Rahe, Randy (Weber St.) | -0.0690 (1) | -0.0690 | N/A | N/A |
| Rose, Dave (BYU) | -1.9226 (6) | -0.3204 | -0.5432 (4) | -0.1358 |
| Ross, Monte (Delaware) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ryan, Bo (Wisconsin) | 0.7584 (12) | 0.0632 | -0.2415 (5) | -0.0483 |
| Self, Bill (Kansas) | 1.2328 (15) | 0.0822 | -1.3275 (5) | -0.2655 |
| Sendek, Herb (Arizona St.) | 0.7500 (7) | 0.1071 | -0.1638 (1) | -0.1638 |
| Smart, Shaka (VCU) | 3.8017 (3) | 1.2672 | 3.8017 (3) | 1.2672 |
| Weber, Bruce (Kansas St.) | 0.1465 (9) | 0.0163 | -2.2414 (3) | -0.7471 |
| Williams, Roy (UNC) | 5.9570 (23) | 0.2590 | 3.1983 (4) | 0.7996 |
| Wright, Jay (Villanova) | 0.5259 (10) | 0.0526 | -0.4397 (4) | -0.1099 |
| Young, Mike (Wofford) | -0.4310 (2) | -0.2155 | -0.4310 (2) | -0.2155 |
Just like yesterday, this list is not sortable. But if you look at this data in Excel, you will see many things that you would expect to see. At the top of the 64 team era lists, you will see familiar names like Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, Mike Kryzewski, and Roy Williams. In the recent era you will see many of the same, plus John Calipari, Shaka Smart, and Sean Miller. At the bottom of all of these lists? Yup, you guessed it, Jamie Dixon.
Later this week, we will take a look at how we can attempt to fill out a bracket using TWE and WAFS and track its accuracy throughout the next 3 weekends. Stay tuned.