I think most people would agree that the Panthers are a better football team than the Orange. But I've always found people to be a tad... unreliable. Advanced statistics, and the algorithms and computers behind them, on the other hand, are always right. With that in mind, let's take a look at what the math says ahead of this week's ACC throwdown in Syracuse. Are the numbers as smitten by Pitt as the AP voters? Do they throw up a little in their mouths when they think about blue and orange uniforms? Let's find out!
Football Outsiders (the stats gurus behind the NFL's DVOA statistic) provide two college football ratings which they have been so kind as to combine for our statistical pleasure (they have FEI and S&P+ pages with more detailed explanations, for those who are curious). The Panther's ranking in the combined rating? 36th overall, 5th in the ACC. Not awful, but not as high as the 25 next to their name in box scores this week. Still, Pitt is in the company of teams like UGA, Wisconsin, and UCLA. Not bad for a team that has been mired in mediocrity the last few years.
What about Syracuse? It's not pretty. You'll have to scroll down that page (keep scrolling... a little more... ok stop!) to find the Orange: 74th overall, 12th in the ACC. Ohio, Middle Tennesee, and Southern Miss live in that area of the rankings. The F/+ definitely gives Pitt the edge on Saturday.
We're off to a good start. But the F/+ isn't supposed to be a predictive measure as much as it is geared towards measuring a team's strength. Let's look at two ratings that more easily lend themselves to direct comparisons: Jeff Sagarin's ratings and ESPN's Football Power Index.
Sagarin's combined rating has Pitt as the 35th best team in the country (5th ACC) and Syracuse as the 82nd best team in the country (13th ACC). The raw numbers make Pitt a 10.5 point favorite, after adjusting for home field advantage. This is significantly higher than the current Veags line, which is 7 points as of this writing. It will be interesting to see how this moves in the next two days.
Finally, we'll look at ESPN's FPI. FPI is, according to its own description, a measure of how many points a team would win by, on a neutral field, against an average team. FPI is not as high on Pitt as the two ratings we've already seen: Pitt is 8.7 points better than an average team, good only for 45th. Luckily, it thinks Syracuse is -1.3 points worse than an average team. That 10 point difference becomes about 7 after adjusting for home field advantage, which is exactly the Vegas line.
Of course, we won't know how these teams compare until Saturday. Syracuse could win the game, especially if they get a turnovers or Pitt's shiny new ranking breeds hubris. The numbers suggest that, perhaps, the Panthers' ranking in the AP poll is a bit high. But the numbers clearly believe the Panthers are a better team, and they should be 6-1 when the game concludes. Here's to hoping that's what happens, and we get a primetime battle-of-the-one-loss-teams when UNC comes to town.
